Tuesday, February 19, 2008

IRS Rebate Checks: When can you expect yours?

So it is the US economy that is the underdog now and everybody's favorite President has decided to give it a much needed boost in the form of cold hard cash!

If you are wondering really how much you will get (surprise - not everybody will get this money!) and by when, read on.


To know by when you can expect your check-in-the-mail, cross-check the last 2 digits of your social security number with the table below. E.g. if your SSN's last 2 digits are 33, you can expect to receive the check by the week of 13th August:

For married taxpayers who file a joint return, the first SSN on the return determines the mailing date.

However, if you make over the following limits the check will not come:

Married with 2 kids and AGI over $186,000
Married with 0 kids and AGI over $ 99,000
Single with 2 kids and AGI over $99,000
Single with 0 kids and AGI over $87,000


So do your bit for the US economy and make sure you spend all that money - keep the wheels moving friends!

Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Bark, Bite or Maul?


Every situation, every decision point is defined by winners and losers. And while winners are celebrated and chronicled everywhere in the press and media, I have always found myself more on the side of the underdogs.

Like the three wise men that followed the star to Jerusalem and greeted Jesus upon his birth. While their journey was no doubt most noble, I have always been more interested in what became of the fourth wise man who never made it to Jerusalem. Was he unable to leave the side of sick relative or friend and got late? Did he get lost in the desert night or did he simply change his course to tend to more pressing agenda and never made it to history's pages?

The Underdog Chronicles seek to examine all viewpoints of current affairs and historical milestones alike. Join in the big debate about "What really happened...?" and help cast your vote on what options did the underdog really have: bark, bite or maul?

Mortgage Meltdown: When The Middle-Class Gambled


Moody's President Ray McDaniel was recently reported in the press confirming that the mathematical models and data driven analysis behind the Triple A ratings of many MBS/CDO offerings in the past few years have failed as they did not factor in the impact of change in consumer behavior.

More specifically, what has confounded all the analysts is the high mortgage delinquency rates of not only the sub-prime but also the prime borrowers whose year-over-year delinquency rates have been rising rapidly, even though they trail the sub-prime delinquency rates.

Historically, American homeowners have chosen to default on their credit card debts and their auto loans but kept paying their mortgages so as not to lose their home but that is apparently not the case in recent years. As home owners saw their monthly mortgage payments start to climb while the value of the home went down, they have instead chosen to return the home keys to the bank (chosen to foreclose or simply walked away from their homes) but have continued to
make their minimum monthly credit card and auto loan payments.

What explains this sudden behavioral reversal? Gambling.

In pure and simple form, the real estate boom was the middle class' big gamble and they literally bet the house, no pun intended.

Fueled by low interest rates, the real estate boom generated fantastic 'paper' wealth for people and the search for 'home' soon became a search for 'property' that will increase in value. The focus on increase in future home value manifested itself in a growing acceptance of Interest Only and other exotic loans. Homeowners and investors essentially started betting that as long as they can make the minimum payment (IO loans) while the property value kept increasing, they were ahead of the game.

And for a while they were, until rising interest rates called the bluff. But when that happened, people found it easy to walk away because (in wall street lingo) it was a losing 'trading position' for the homeowners.

History will call this a credit crisis or real estate bust or something that equally misses the point: that this was the first time that middle-class America gambled.

And gambled big.